ag_risk — risk framework documentation
A modular, gridded crop-risk engine · concept & handover docs · v1 (weather, Kenya maize)
ag_risk turns per-signal inputs into a 0–1 crop-risk score on a grid, decomposed by hazard and
compounding season-to-date across the season
— the same engine for any crop / region / peril, wired by config. These pages are the go-to source
for the concepts, how it fits Market Insights, and how it expands. The code + developer docs live in
the model repo (Model Foundry); the handover map lives in Notion — both link back here.
Read everything through one lens: v1 now, built to expand.
- v1 — shipped today: weather hazards (drought · heat · cold · water), Kenya maize, ERA5 (realised) + SEAS5 (forecast), literature-anchored (Directional) curves. This is real and runs.
- Built to expand — roadmap / concept: more regions & commodities (config) → non-weather dimensions (fire · flood · disease, via the GEE testbed) → calibrated curves (from MI models, upstream) → and beyond crops to forest / carbon projects. The engine doesn't change — these plug in.
Anything below the "Expansion" heading is
roadmap / concept, not built; the rest describes v1 as it stands.
Start here — how it works
The modular risk framework →
One fixed engine, three swappable inputs (data · WHEN · HOW-BAD) + two per-crop scaffolds (calendar · mask). Forecast vs realised, worked examples (Kenya maize, Vietnam coffee). The best single overview.
Concepts & the Market-Insights fit
Severity library (HOW BAD) →
The standalone twx-risk-severity-library: a catalogue of severity functions (most are damage curves; some are exposure measures), the calibration pipeline, scope resolution, current state.
Data sources & how it fits MI →
What feeds the framework, the live-core-vs-upstream picture, and how MI's yield / hindcast models + EO work do the feature-importance & calibration upstream and feed the shared libraries.
Validation →
How a Directional model is validated without yield — the proxy ladder, the Tier-1 Kenya result, and the gridded / sub-regional plan.
Expansion — beyond weather & crops (roadmap / concept — not v1)
Beyond crops — forest & carbon projects (EI) →
The framework as a general "risk to a living asset" engine: how it applies to a reforestation / avoided-deforestation project. Concept, not built.
Adding a new region, variable, or commodity in code → EXTENDING.md in the model repo
(model_foundry/models/ag_risk/docs/). The GEE testbed branch demos non-weather dimensions (fire / flood / disease) — for review, not merge.
Reference — run & output
The other two surfaces
Code + dev docs → the model repo model-foundry (model_foundry/models/ag_risk/): README, MODEL_CARD, docs/EXTENDING·OUTPUT_CONTRACT·VALIDATION.
Handover map → the Notion "Jasmine Handover — Ag Risk" page (brief · current state · asks · ownership), which links back to these pages.