ag_risk — risk framework documentation
A modular, gridded crop-risk engine · v1 (weather, Kenya maize)
ag_risk turns per-signal inputs into a 0–1 crop-risk score on a grid, decomposed by hazard and
compounding season-to-date across the season
— the same engine for any crop / region / peril, wired by config. These three pages are the go-to source
for how it works, the severity (HOW BAD) library, and how it fits Market Insights. The
code + developer docs live in the model repo (model-foundry); the
handover map lives in Notion — both link back here.
The docs
Methods (framework overview + model methods) →
The best single overview: one fixed engine + swappable inputs (data · WHEN · HOW-BAD · calendar · mask), how it links to the weather pipeline, the dose→severity→fuse→combine method, run modes (realised/forecast), outputs, validation status and limitations. Mirrors docs/METHODS.md.
Severity library (HOW BAD) — explainer & how-to →
The standalone twx-risk-severity-library: what it is, how calibration is performed (re-anchor / ratio-to-normal), how upstream yield/other work feeds in, and step-by-step for adding a curve and calibrating a new country (TZ/ZM). Mirrors docs/EXPLAINER.md.
Data sources & the wider-MI fit →
What feeds the framework, the live-core-vs-upstream picture, and how MI's yield / hindcast models + EO work do the feature-importance & calibration upstream and feed the shared libraries.
Extending — new regions, variables & dimensions →
How to grow the model without touching the engine: add a region (the Tanzania/Zambia path), a driver variable, a commodity, or a new dimension — plus the reducer requirement every new dimension must meet. Mirrors docs/EXTENDING.md.
The other two surfaces
Code + dev docs → the model repo model-foundry (model_foundry/models/ag_risk/):
README, MODEL_CARD, docs/METHODS · EXTENDING · FORECAST · OUTPUT_CONTRACT · VALIDATION · OUTSTANDING;
and twx-risk-severity-library (README, docs/EXPLAINER · CALIBRATION).
Handover map → the Notion "Jasmine Handover — Ag Risk" page (brief · current state · asks · ownership), which links back to these pages.